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Canadian Housing Can't "Crash" - but that's not the only way down

Wednesday Jul 7th, 2021

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A market "crash"​ isn't the only way down. Published on July 5, 2021 Edit article View stats Status is online Daniel Foch Real estate. 35 articles To me, a "crash" implies that prices fall so quickly that people don't have time to escape. This creates a trap in which financial stress can be spread across the entire economy. See America, 2008. In a normal year, it's very... [read more]

A $1 BILLION bet that Canadian housing will end up like Germany.

Tuesday Jun 29th, 2021

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It’s no news that Core Development recently announced they’d be purchasing $1 Billion in Canadian housing with their new fund. It was only a matter of time until this happened, as Jay Vasantharajah (@jayvasdigital) and I discussed in a podcast episode about a year ago. (Link for the curious) The industry knows about this – and therefore the majority of people in Ontario know about this, because the majority of people in Ontario are directly or indirectly employed by the... [read more]

What is the urban exodus, and why does it matter?

Tuesday Dec 8th, 2020

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Context I wrote a lot of articles earlier this year, but started doing more visual analysis for Instagram, Twitter & YouTube to grow my audience on those platforms. I've decided I should write a bit more again. I managed to put together a few data sets aimed at understanding the way people are changing their relationship with urbanized housing as a result of the covid-19 pandemic, and the consequential lockdowns that followed it. The information was well received by the media.... [read more]

The end of the rebound: Covid Weekly York Region Real Estate Market Update - May 2

Monday May 4th, 2020

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The volume metrics I was optimistic about have regressed pretty substantially. Even more surprising is that price seems to show some surprising resilience against the volume challenges in the market right now. I think this is a good thing, but I'm reluctant to give it too much credit right now as it seems to be evolving as a selection bias. Selection Bias in York Region House Price Growth The easiest way to visualize this is by evaluating the price rebound we've seen is to try to... [read more]

3 reasons you shouldn’t get caught up in spring “price growth”

Friday Mar 13th, 2020

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Today’s 3-pointer will be brief, and it could very quickly become functionally irrelevant as the coronavirus panic spreads from grocery stores to real estate viewings. There are 3 statistically-biased reasons you really shouldn’t get too wrapped up in the idea that “spring market” pricing is any different than the other seasons: People – selection bias Product – selection bias Pricing – observer bias I have this... [read more]

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