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It seems like we've pretty progressively found a temporary new normal, with little change in most major metrics. The big one to watch for now is going to be price, which could be gradually dragged down by excess supply. In the microeconomic outlook, it appears we're already seeing opportunism propping up the market on a transactional basis, as we've bounced off fundamentals without rebounding from suppressed capitalization rates we saw in the past few years. It seems like... [read more]

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The volume metrics I was optimistic about have regressed pretty substantially. Even more surprising is that price seems to show some surprising resilience against the volume challenges in the market right now. I think this is a good thing, but I'm reluctant to give it too much credit right now as it seems to be evolving as a selection bias. Selection Bias in York Region House Price Growth The easiest way to visualize this is by evaluating the price rebound we've seen is to try to... [read more]

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