I feel like I've been generally about as exhaustive as I can be about the impact/existence of the "urban exodus" in the GTA, but you can expect a little bit more data in the future. The team at informedrealtor.com is putting together a visual timeline video. BlogTO & Zoocasa posted a great map detailing price growth across the GTA that echoed my original exodus mapping project. From my perspective, price is the more important metric than individual or household... [read more]

At the risk of sounding melodramatic, I honestly believe that bidding wars are among the greatest economic inefficiencies ever produced by the real estate market. In 2017, we saw a pretty wild market, with real-time price discovery being the greatest challenge of buyers, sellers, and realtors alike. As a result, we saw the arbitrary underpricing of properties that led to even more arbitrary firm offers being submitted. Ultimately, this created risk for buyers, sellers, and lenders as we... [read more]

Best case scenario forecast shows Canada's aggregate home price could grow a modest 1% by the end of 2020 If the pandemic continues to heavily restrict business activity through late summer, a national home price decrease of 3% is expected by the end of 2020 The aggregate price of a home in Canada climbed 4.4 per cent year-over-year in Q1 2020 High demand and low inventory in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa fueled rising home... [read more]

The volume metrics I was optimistic about have regressed pretty substantially. Even more surprising is that price seems to show some surprising resilience against the volume challenges in the market right now. I think this is a good thing, but I'm reluctant to give it too much credit right now as it seems to be evolving as a selection bias. Selection Bias in York Region House Price Growth The easiest way to visualize this is by evaluating the price rebound we've seen is to try to... [read more]

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