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People seem to get a little bit of value and comfort from these weekly reports, so I'm going to keep doing them until that changes. While it's been interesting to watch things change due to negative impacts of covid-19 and social-distancing policy, the picture is obviously still quite unclear. As you probably know, I interview professionals from the real estate industry on a regular basis. This experience has given me the ability to apply both qualitative and quantitative analysis to... [read more]

Today’s 3-pointer will be brief, and it could very quickly become functionally irrelevant as the coronavirus panic spreads from grocery stores to real estate viewings. There are 3 statistically-biased reasons you really shouldn’t get too wrapped up in the idea that “spring market” pricing is any different than the other seasons: People – selection bias Product – selection bias Pricing – observer bias I have this... [read more]

1.    Don’t try to time the real estate market. Buy and sell in the same economy. Trying to create or carve out an arbitrage in a volatile market is where people get burned. Unless you're an economist, an actuary, or write financial instruments for a living, arbitrage is fickle. One of the important ignored nuances around this concept is that if you’re selling, and your sale is challenging, then that will proportionately affect your sentiment... [read more]