Coronavirus, more formally known as the disease Covid-19, and the infection Sars-Cov-2, just became a lot more real for North Americans, as it's finally permeated our two favourite things, the economy, and pop-culture. There is a travel ban between Europe & USA. All major indices are in bear-market territory. The NBA is shutting down, an NBA all star is infected (and touched a bunch of microphones as a joke), Tom Hanks and his partner are infected, etc. etc. Covid is obviously a thing,... [read more]

I’m going to outline the 3 housing buyer groups most impacted by current market conditions… which are: house prices rising stock market declining declining interest rates If you’d prefer to read this in tweets click here: https://twitter.com/WTFoch/status/1237721132113018886 If you’d prefer to watch me talk about this in less than 1 minute, check out my IG story: https://www.instagram.com/danielfoch/ 1. Small-cap investors: Small cap... [read more]

Today’s 3-pointer will be brief, and it could very quickly become functionally irrelevant as the coronavirus panic spreads from grocery stores to real estate viewings. There are 3 statistically-biased reasons you really shouldn’t get too wrapped up in the idea that “spring market” pricing is any different than the other seasons: People – selection bias Product – selection bias Pricing – observer bias I have this... [read more]

3-Pointer  Below is a list of the 3 types of listings that will perform the best while the spring market is on pause, in the event of a shutdown comparable to Italy or Wuhan. I think that we’re currently at the onset of what seems to be an interesting shift in consumer psychology, where the attentiveness to “hot spring market” narrative is being usurped by “lockdown” +/- “DJIA limit down”… it appears the media fear mongering is... [read more]

The volume metrics I was optimistic about have regressed pretty substantially. Even more surprising is that price seems to show some surprising resilience against the volume challenges in the market right now. I think this is a good thing, but I'm reluctant to give it too much credit right now as it seems to be evolving as a selection bias. Selection Bias in York Region House Price Growth The easiest way to visualize this is by evaluating the price rebound we've seen is to try to... [read more]